The price you see today is one point on a line. Looking at the whole line, and at what drives it, is where data analysis and AI earn their keep.
Reading a trend
- Long history first: look as far back as reliable data goes. Short windows hide cycles.
- Seasonality: many prices rise and fall with the seasons (freight before holidays, crops after harvest).
- Moving averages smooth out noise so the direction is visible.
- Shocks: wars, storms, new tariffs and canal closures show up as sudden jumps; note what caused them.
Forecasts with honest uncertainty
A good forecast is a range, not a single number. AetherVett shows each outlook with an 80% range and the chance of specific outcomes (for example, "a 30% chance the price is more than 10% higher in a year"), using two kinds of models (traditional statistics and simulation) and their combination, plus how far past forecasts missed.
Best value, not lowest price
- Total landed cost: price plus freight, insurance, duties, taxes, financing and the cost of delays.
- Risk-adjusted cost: a cheaper supplier on a fragile route may cost more once disruptions are counted.
- Alternatives: a second source or a different material can protect you when one option suddenly becomes expensive.
- Values: a supplier whose practices match yours can be worth paying for.
Where AI helps
AI reads thousands of price notices, tariff changes and news items, links them to your product, and keeps the history current, so a person can compare options on facts rather than impressions.
Not legal, financial or other regulated advice.